Launch of the project Coming DecadeNew climate model for more accurate climate prediction

15 December 2023

Photo: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Creativ Commons Lizenz: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 DEED

From coarse grained to fine pixels - towards higher resolution and thus more precise climate predictions: The left graphic depicts the resolution of a global climate model, where minimal differences between regions in Germany are apparent. The middle graphic shows a coarse resolution of the regions, but it is only the fine resolution n the right illustration that reveals the regional distinctions for Germany. The project 'Coming Decade', funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), provides resolutions akin to the right graphic with the new climate model, thereby calculating more meaningful climate predictions for the next ten years in Germany and Europe.

Global warming is advancing, but how will this affect Germany in the upcoming decade? Six research institutions, including the DKRZ, are collaboratively developing a new climate prediction system in the 'Coming Decade' project to make more precise predictions for Germany and Europe.

We are already experiencing the consequences of climate change today, but the impacts manifest regionally and seasonally in diverse ways. Will the upcoming winters be milder and stormier, or will we experience another cold, snow-rich winter like in the early 2010s? Our climate is not simply getting warmer; complex processes and interactions can also lead to cooler climate phases. Therefore, a cold winter or summer is not contradictory to climate warming but rather a normal effect of climate variability.

To better adapt to the collective effects of climate change and variability and initiate corresponding proactive measures, it is crucial to have precise and reliable climate forecasts for the coming years. These forecasts provide all the relevant data on where and when, for example, drought or a cold winter can be expected. In December 2023, the 'Coming Decade' project was launched, supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), and will use a new climate model to generate more meaningful predictions for Germany and Europe over the next ten years.

In contrast to short-term weather forecasts for the next hours and days, as well as long-term climate projections for statements about the climate in roughly 100 years, medium-term climate forecasts consider the period between one month and ten years. In 2011, the BMBF initiated the funding measure 'MiKlip – Medium-Term Climate Forecasts', where 16 national partners from universities, research institutes and federal ministries developed a decadal climate prediction system, which was handed over to the German Meteorological Service (DWD) for operational use. The demand for reliable climate prognoses is high, because the planning horizon in economy as well as politics and society lies in the realm of years to decades.

The research project 'Coming Decade‘ builds on the predecessor project 'MiKlip‘ and develops a new prediction system based on the climate model 'ICON-Seamless‘ with an even higher precision. Project coordinator Prof. Johanna Baehr from the University of Hamburg states: "Six institutions are involved in 'Coming Decade‘ – all with the common goal to significantly improve medium-term prognoses and to provide users in certain regions with more detailed data. In this way adaption measures to future climatic developments in a city or region can be refined and prioritised.“

The climate predictions are based on observation data like surface temperature and air currents. On the other hand they rely on physical laws of the entire earth system. As opposed to weather predictions, here the state of all systems (such as the ocean) are considered, since these systems have a great impact on our climate. Implementing these elements into the model certain processes can be predicted and new medium-term climate forcasts can be made.

The 'Coming Decade‘ project partners schedule three years for the development of the climate prediction system. "If everything goes according to plan, the DWD will launch the model and present new climate forecasts in 2026.“, says Prof. Johanna Baehr.

[This article is a translation of the original german FONA article: FONA article (german only).]