Coming Decade - Decadal climate predictions for Europe
Project Partners
- University of Hamburg (UHH, Hamburg)
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German Meteorological Service, Offenbach)
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ, German Climate Computing Center, Hamburg)
- Universität Bonn (UBN, Bonn)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M, Hamburg)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT, Karlsruhe)
- Freie Universität Berlin (FUB, Berlin)
- Max Planck Institute for Human Development (MPI-B, Berlin)
Overview
Coming Decade focuses on improving the German decadal climate forecast system by integrating the latest scientific findings and developing application-oriented and regionalized climate forecasts. Coming Decade will improve decadal-scale climate predictions for Europe by advancing the decadal climate system. Coming Decade will develop new inovative products that have been in high demand by users, and attract new users for new decadal climate prediction products.
Project Period: 12/2023 - 11/2026
Funding programme: BMBF strategy "Research for Sustainability" (FONA)
Coming Decade is a follow-on project of MiKlip.
Objectives
“A Coming Decade — Decadal-scale prospects for Europe” aims to significantly improve decadal-scale climate predictions for Europe and to develop climate services to support decision-making for the coming years. Coming Decade will take both the prediction system and the forecast products to the next level, and addresses two objectives:
- Advancing the decadal climate prediction system,
- Co-developing communication formats for user-relevant forecasts.
Work Packages
Advancement of decadal climate predictions
The quality of climate predictions depends on the quality of the prediction system, which in turn consists of the coupled climate model and its initialisation as well as post-processing to different local resolutions, which are the tasks of WP1.
- Task 1.1 Model development - Adjustment of ENSO Dynamics in ICON-Seamless and Predictions (MPI-M, UHH)
- Task 1.2 Model-consistent Initialisation (UHH, DWD)
- Task 1.3 Hindcast development (UHH and entire consortium)
- Task 1.4 Model infrastructure development towards pre-operational prediction system (DKRZ and entire consortium)
- Task 1.5 System and preparation of products relevant to user groups (DKRZ and entire consortium)
For more details see Work Package 1: Prediction system.
Co-production of user-relevant predictions
In WP2, the prediction products are consistently oriented towards the requirements and demands of the users in close co-operation with DWD, to ensure (subsequent) operational use.
- Task 2.1 Evidence-based development and evaluation of products and communication formats (FUB, MPI-B, DWD, UHH)
- Task 2.2 Development of user-specific products for sectoral applications with statistical adjustment for reliable probabilistic predictions (FUB, Uni BN, and DWD)
- Task 2.3 Verification of extremes and multivariable indices (Uni BN, FUB, DWD)
- Task 2.4 Development and Testing for an Optimized Nesting Strategy for Europe and Benchmarking (KIT, MPI-M)
- Task 2.5 Combining Predictions and Projections to Assess Predictive Skill of Heat Extremes (MPI-M , KIT, UHH, DWD)
- Task 2.6 Added Value of Global Multi-Model-Predictions for User-relevant variables (KIT, MPI-M , FUB)
For more details see Work Package 2: User-orientation.
Coordination and Synthesis
The project is coordinated by regular meetings of the entire consortium, which is supported by a Synthesis, Dissemination & Project Coordination position (UHH). The project coordination keeps track of all developments in the WPs, coordinates and networks the work between the institutions. A synthesis of the development of the climate prediction system is planned across work packages, aimed at quantifying progress in system development.
The project coordination keeps an eye on all developments in the WPs, coordinates and networks the work in the different institutions. It is the central contact point for external inquiries, but also within the project. It is responsible for organising the status seminars, steering group meetings, but also for coordinating the annual and final reports and computing time applications.
