Mechanisms and seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature in the Senegalo-Mauritanian Upwelling System

25 March 2026

Photo: UHH / Adama Sylla

The Northwest African Coastal Upwelling System, as the one of the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling systems is of primary importance for the regional ecosystem and has crucial relevance for local populations. On this aspect, Adama Sylla and colleagues analysed the near-term predictability of this system by predicting the sea surface temperature (SST), using the latest version of seasonal predictions from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model High Resolution (MPI-ESM-HR). Their results show that in this African coastal region, seasonal variations of SST are predictable 1 to 4 months in advance during boreal winter, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability particularly during the strong phases of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with a major role of AMM.

Sylla, A., S. Brune, T. Losada, and J. Baehr, 2026: Mechanisms and seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature in the Senegalo-Mauritanian Upwelling System. Clim Dyn 64, 159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08121-3