Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight

26 June 2025

Photo: BSH/Laura Schaffer

In her recent publication, Laura Schaffer presents the development of a simple statistical model designed to calculate wind surges at the Cuxhaven gauge. Due to its geographical location, the Cuxhaven gauge serves as a reliable proxy for water levels across large parts of the German Bight. The newly developed model stands out for its simplicity, requiring only a few input variables, yet achieving a predictive skill that is comparable to much more complex statistical approaches. Thanks to its minimal input requirements, the model is particularly well-suited for application to climate model projections, enabling assessments of future wind surge behavior under changing climate conditions.

Schaffer, L., Boesch, A., Baehr, J., and Kruschke, T.: "Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2081–2096, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025.