Lagged and Instantaneous Impacts of the NAO on Subdecadal Variability of the Norwegian Sea Temperature

23 December 2025

Photo: MPI-M/Hongdou Fan

In her recent publication, Hongdou Fan et al. show that NAO dominates the subdecadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the Norwegian Sea in a twofold way, lagged and instantaneous impact. By investigating the associated mechanisms, they argue that this twofold impact holds the key to poor prediction of the Norwegian Sea temperature in dynamical models. It is essential to not only predict both instantaneous and lagged impacts of the NAO correctly but also capture the overlying timing of two impacts correctly.

Fan, H., L. F. Borchert, S. Brune, A. Drews, and J. Baehr, 2025: Lagged and Instantaneous Impacts of the NAO on Subdecadal Variability of the Norwegian Sea Temperature. J. Climate, 38, 5997–6010. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/38/21/JCLI-D-24-0302.1.xml